7.16.25
“An Engineering Solution -- The Guadalupe River Must Never Flood Again”
By Henry W. Burke
***COMMENTS BY DONNA GARNER: People all over Texas and throughout the country are agonizing over the terrible loss of lives (many of them young children) in the devastating July 4, 2025 Texas Hill Country floods.
There is no way to measure how much a human life is worth.
Unfortunately, the natural tendency for most of us is to want to “blame” someone for this horrible tragedy.
However, blaming someone basically does no good because it is after the loss of life has already occurred.
What does offer hope for the future is how to come up with constructive solutions to keep such flooding from ever happening again.
This is where Henry W. Burke has stepped up with viable solutions.
He has taken his own time to put them in writing and to share them with Texas and government officials.
Mr. Burke is a retired Civil Engineer who has worked in construction for close to 50 years.
Because he cares, Mr. Burke has studied the Texas Hill Country terrain and knows exactly what needs to be built to keep such flooding and loss of life from occurring in the future.
If you want to join Mr. Burke in sharing this article with Texas and/or U. S. officials, here are sites to help you:
https://capitol.texas.gov/Resources/contactText.aspx
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“An Engineering Solution -- The Guadalupe River Must Never Flood Again”
By Henry W. Burke
In the early morning hours of Friday, July 4, 2025, the Texas Hill Country received a record amount of rainfall; about 8 inches of rain fell in 4 hours on that morning. Over 22 inches of rainfall were recorded in a 3-day period at Hunt, Texas.
As a result of the tremendous rainfall, the Guadalupe River rose out of its banks and claimed the lives of more than 131 people (so far)! At least 101 people are still missing. The focus of national attention has been on Camp Mystic where 27 children and staff perished in the flood.
IMPORTANT QUESTIONS
Because lives are extremely valuable, we must ask the question: Is there an engineering solution to minimize the loss of life from floods on the Guadalupe River? This paper will focus on engineering solutions to save lives in this area of Texas.
GUADALUPE RIVER DESCRIPTION
Much of the media coverage focused on Camp Mystic and the horrible loss of lives there. In almost every case, the media referred to the “Guadalupe River.” Actually two forks feed into the Guadalupe River. Camp Mystic is located on the South Fork of the Guadalupe River.
The South Fork begins in the southwestern part of Kerr County and flows northeast for 27 miles. It meets the North Fork at Hunt, Texas. At this point, the combined forks become the “Guadalupe River.”
The North Fork of the Guadalupe River rises in the western part of Kerr County. It flows east for 29 miles until it merges with the South Fork at Hunt, Texas. The Guadalupe River flows for about 250 miles to the Gulf of America.
https://tpwd.texas.gov/publications/pwdpubs/pwd_rp_t3200_1059d/media/s_guadalupe.pdf
“FLASH FLOOD ALLEY”
The Guadalupe River and the surrounding area in the Texas Hill Country have been prone to many serious flash floods. Hence, the area has earned the nickname “Flash Flood Alley.” This area is a curved shape about 300 miles long and 50 miles wide in southwest Texas. It extends from the Dallas area to southwest of San Antonio. The weather patterns and geology combine to create devastating flash floods. Factors creating these conditions include heavy rain, rocky soil, and steep terrain.
RECENT TEXAS FLOODS
Two previous flash floods have occurred in this area of Texas. On October 17-18, 1998, a pair of hurricanes caused downstream flash flooding along the Guadalupe River. A cold front was the mechanism that caused torrential rains to develop in southwest Texas. This event claimed 31 lives. The flow in the Guadalupe River peaked at 477 CFS (cubic feet per second).
On June 30, 2002, a major flash flood hit South Central Texas. This was just four years after the 500-year flood impacted Texas in 1998. June 30 was the beginning of an 8-day heavy rain period. High flows in the Guadalupe River caused water to flow over the Emergency Spillway at Canyon Lake Dam for the first time since it was built. The maximum flow was 67,000 CFS.
https://www.weather.gov/safety/flood-states-tx
GUADALUPE RIVER FLOOD STATISTICS
The recent Guadalupe River flood had a disastrous impact and caused the loss of many lives. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a measuring station at Hunt, Texas. The typical river flow throughout the year is about 10 CFS at this station. On July 2, 2025, the flow was 6 CFS at 10:00 p.m. Two days later, on Friday July 4, 2025, at 4:35 a.m., the flow was a whopping 120,000 CFS!
It was this absolutely mind-boggling flow that caused the disastrous flooding on the Guadalupe River! On July 3, 2025, the gauge height was 7.61 ft. at 5:00 a.m. The next day, on July 4, 2025, the gauge height was 37.52 ft. at 5:10 a.m. On Friday morning, July 4, the river rose 26 ft. in 45 minutes!
NEW DAM CONSTRUCTION
The most important part of the engineering solution for preventing Guadalupe River flash floods is new dam construction. By constructing new dams, floodwater can be stored temporarily in the reservoirs behind the dams.
The primary purpose of these dams is flood control. Because the floodwater will be stored for a short period of time, the dams will have little recreational value. After the high rainfall event, the stored water can be released in a controlled manner.
My proposed damsite location for the South Fork of the Guadalupe River is at its headwaters. The South Fork begins 3 miles upstream from highway FM 187. The damsite would intersect with Highway 39 just west of Mullen Creek. The damsite would be just north of Bee Bluff. The earthfill dam would be about 60 ft. high, and the elevation of the dam crest would be about 2,100 ft. To control water releases from the reservoir, the dam should be equipped with flood gates. The dam should include an unlined emergency spillway on one side. Because this damsite is in a rural area, it causes minimal disturbance to existing properties.
To construct the dam, a portion of Highway 39 must be relocated to the north. Also a house and two barns must be moved. Because this damsite location would capture the water from several tributaries, it would reduce downstream flooding caused by the South Fork of the Guadalupe River.
https://www.yellowmaps.com/usgs/topo.cfm?map=tx-1375165-north-fork-guadalupe-river
The proposed damsite location for the North Fork of the Guadalupe River is at the headwaters. The North Fork begins just west of Boneyard Draw and highway FM 1340. The earthfill dam would be about 60 ft. high with a crest elevation of 2,100 ft.
The dam should be equipped with flood gates to control water releases from the reservoir. The dam will need to include an unlined emergency spillway on one side. This damsite would cause minimal disturbance to existing properties. Because this damsite location captures the water from various tributaries, it would reduce downstream flooding from the North Fork of the Guadalupe River.
RIVER CHANNELIZATION
To minimize floods, engineers often enlarge the riverbed. The goal is to allow the riverbed to carry more water downstream. If the riverbed cannot move the water downstream, the river will rise and overflow its banks. This causes flooding on both sides of the river with the possible loss of lives. River channelization often includes removing trees and shrubs which partially block the flow of water. Because of the recent floods in the Guadalupe River, most of this work has already been done. Another measure is to widen and deepen the riverbed. This is accomplished by excavating or dredging the riverbed. Once again, the floods have scoured most of the loose material away. However, there might be places where the riverbed should be widened.
RIVER FLOODWALLS
Floodwalls should be built along the river to contain the river within its banks. These should be built in, selected locations along the North and South Forks of the Guadalupe River. The suggested design would be reinforced concrete floodwalls about 2 ft. high. (Because a 3-ft.-high concrete floodwall would make it fairly difficult for campers to get to the river, the 3-ft.-high floodwalls should be avoided in most locations.)
SPECIAL CASE AT CAMP MYSTIC GUADALUPE
Because of the significant loss of life at Camp Mystic, this area will deserve special attention. Cypress Creek empties into the South Fork of the Guadalupe River right at Camp Mystic Guadalupe. Cypress Creek adds to the flow in the River at this vulnerable location. Because Cypress Creek cannot be relocated, it must be handled in a different way. There are several dams on Cypress Creek, including dams on Moore Lakes. These dams should be enlarged by raising their heights.
Another issue is vehicle access to escape Camp Mystic Guadalupe. When the low water bridge on the Guadalupe River was overtopped, the campers and staff were trapped. There is a dirt road leading from Camp Mystic Guadalupe to Camp Mystic Cypress Lake (just to the southwest). This road should be used in an emergency.
CONCLUSION
When lives are lost in flash floods, they cannot be replaced. The primary purpose of this paper is to encourage an engineering approach to a serious flooding problem. The engineering solutions offered here are far from complete. For example, Civil Engineers should look for an additional damsite along the South Fork and the North Fork of the Guadalupe River. These dams would retain a vast amount of floodwater during a storm event.
To prevent the loss of lives in future flash floods, the State of Texas and the federal government should undertake an engineering evaluation of the Guadalupe River. That analysis must lead to construction and a permanent solution. Lives are precious!
BIO FOR HENRY W. BURKE
Henry Burke is a Civil Engineer with a B.S.C.E. and M.S.C.E. (BSCE from the University of New Mexico and MSCE from Oklahoma State University.)
He has been a Registered Professional Engineer (P.E.) for 37 years and has worked as a Civil Engineer in construction for close to 50 years.
Mr. Burke had a successful career with a large construction company (Kiewit Corporation).
He has written numerous articles on education, engineering, construction, politics, taxes, and the economy.
Henry W. Burke
E-mail: hwburke25@gmail.com
Published Articles:
3.19.17 -- “How To Fix Oroville Dam” – by Henry W. Burke -- ENR – Engineering News-Record -- https://www.enr.com/articles/41664-how-to-fix-oroville-dam
4.6.17 -- “More Thoughts About How To Fix Oroville Dam” -- by Henry W. Burke -- ENR – Engineering News-Record -- https://www.enr.com/articles/41733-more-thoughts-about-how-to-fix-oroville-dam
1.22.22 -- “Biden’s Costly Halt of Border Wall Construction” -- by Henry W. Burke -- https://donnagarner.org/bidens-costly-halt-of-border-wall-construction/
1.23.25 -- “LA Fires Demand a New California Water Plan” – by Henry W. Burke -- https://donnagarner.org/1-23-25-la-fires-demand-a-new-california-water-plan-by-henry-w-burke/